A tale of two sales

Short sale craziness continues. The short sale team in my office took two short sale listings a few days apart in August. At the time, neither seller had done any preliminary work with their respective lenders. The team went to work getting the hardship and other required documentation together from the sellers for submission to the lenders. Both properties got offers shortly which were submitted within days of one another to the lenders along with all requested documentation. Both sellers had legitimate hardship. Forty days later, one sale was approved in writing and ready to close while the other lender was still asking for more and more documentation. The seller confessed yesterday that he had continued to make mortgage payments the whole time that we were trying to negotiate a short sale with his lender. Asking a lender to approve a short sale while the mortgage is current is like panhandling in an Armani suit. Chances of success are slim.

The take-away: If a property owner has the resources to stay current on the mortgage and does so, the lender will be way less motivated to agree to a short sale or modification. Why should a lender write off tens of thousands of dollars when they can just continue to accept timely payments? Any reader considering pursuing a short sale needs to understand that hardship must be real and able to be proven. Prepare to be asked for documentation similar to that required to obtain a new loan. Without proof of hardship, chances of approval approach zero. With proper documentation, real hardship and an experienced short sale negotiator a seller stands a good chance of successfully selling a property short.

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.”
___________Albert Einstein

 

Wake up – September’s finished

How bout that graph? September condo sales in Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral spiked up considerably over the previous year with 45 closed MLS sales of condos and townhomes during the month. There were four closed single-family home sales during the month, all in Cocoa Beach. One surprising stat was the fact that, of the 45 condo sales, only five were short sales.

The lowest price condo sale was $13,800 for a foreclosed 1/1 Golden Gate Manor unit in Cape Canaveral that sold in 2006 for $82,500. That’s a mind-numbing 83% off the peak. The highest price condo sale was $555,000 for a never-lived-in Michelina 5th floor corner, 3/3, 2524 sq. ft. This same unit was asking $849,500 just one year ago. It was the only condo sale for more than $500,000 in the month. The adjacent, slightly bigger Michelina unit (not a corner) also closed for $450,000 or $177 per square foot. Not bad for brand new oceanfront, even if side view.

A 7th floor, 3/2 Crescent Beach Club in south Cocoa Beach closed for $325,000 which bumps the comps down slightly for that building which is well into a major and very expensive concrete restoration project.

Harbor Isles was on fire in September with five closed sales. Not surprisingly, the ever-present Betty Siegel was involved in three of those sales. Looking back over the stats for the year, there have been ten MLS sales in Harbor Isles. Of the ten, my office has represented one or both sides of eight of those transactions with Betty being involved in six. You go, girl.

Another Hacienda del Mar direct ocean 2/2, 4th floor with garage sold for $248,500. It was in original condition.

I was able to close a short sale at Cape Winds of a direct ocean ground floor 2/2 with the wide patio for $210,000, a new low for direct ocean units in this very popular complex. With this sale and two other pending short sales there, the other overly optimistic sellers will now have to come to terms with the new reality.

There were three sales in the month of 2 bedroom units at Ocean Woods in Cape Canaveral at prices from $129,000 to $155,000.

In head-scratching news, in a year in which a total of only 20 units have closed for over $500,000 ( half of those at The Meridian) eight pre-construction units in an unbuilt oceanfront building in south Cocoa Beach popped up on the MLS this week at prices from $800,000 to $1,050,000. The same developer is offering 16 other units in four different completed new buildings on the MLS, most or all having been reduced substantially in price. A+ for optimism.

Fishermen, the mullet run is back on in force. There are acres of mullet moving south along the beach with packs of predators in attendance. This is the best time of year for fishing from the beach with opportunities to catch snook, Spanish mackerel, bluefish, kingfish, trout, redfish and tarpon among others. Take advantage if you enjoy fishing but, whatever you do, enjoy October for all the other reasons that make this month my favorite of the year in Cocoa Beach.

“As my memory rests but never forgets what I lost
Wake me up when September ends.”____Green Day

 

If Willy Loman had a blog

More of our great surf recently. Laza tags a screamer with typical nonchalance.

I continue to be amazed at the disingenuous hype being dispersed by others within my industry. I can’t go to a real estate blog or website without reading the same old crap intended to entice buyers into making a move and purchasing a property. Folks, you need to be very careful choosing a buyer’s agent to assist you in your search. There are plenty of warning signs that should give you pause, chief among them, the absence of cautious advice and/or undiluted enthusiasm about the market. If your agent is spending too much energy convincing you that everything is great with our market, you need to reconsider his motivations and sincerity.

and … reason Number 1 that your agent may not be a good choice: He makes a blanket, unqualified statement containing any variation of the words, “Now is a good time to buy.” It may be a good time to buy some isolated properties, but, as I research the available listings on our MLS, I find far more properties that are severely over-priced than those that may qualify as a “good buy”. If you accept that well-worn phrase and come into our market thinking that it applies to all properties, you may well become the next bagholder.

Having said all that, now is a good time to sift through the available properties looking for those good deals hidden among the clutter. Arm yourself with knowledge of recent sales that are comparable to the property type you’re seeking and keep your focus. Don’t chase something you don’t want just because it’s a deal or because you’re impatient. Your search may have started with direct ocean units and became diverted to side views because of the lower prices. As I’ve said before, that forty grand you saved on the purchase price might not taste as sweet when you’re sitting on your side-view balcony staring at the building next door with a cold north wind in your teeth. Patience has been rewarded this year.

Speaking of patience, let’s discuss short sales. A buyer in a short sale is at the total mercy of the listing agent and, in many cases, completely in the dark throughout the process. I have worked with some real pros on the listing side (you know who you are and I thank you) and with some that are completely clueless to the process and have a possibility of closing a deal approaching zero. In addition to the listing agents who can’t close a short sale, there are short sale listings in our system that are, I suspect, just bait to get the phone or in-box lit up. Proceed with skepticism and caution in this part of our market and don’t even consider offering on a short sale unless you are willing to wait indefinitely. If you do put in an offer on a short sale, know that closing is not certain. Keep looking while the bank twiddles it’s thumbs. It’s possible to find non-short sale properties at the same levels as many of the short sales without all the hassles.

MLS inventory August 31, 2009 Cocoa Beach & Cape Canaveral

Condos, all prices_____635 – 22 sold so far in August
over $500,000_________78 – 22 sold since New Year’s Day
Single family homes___108
over $500,000_________43

“Expect ALL estimates of time to be overly optimistic.“_____Larry

 

What a day it was

Sunday, August 24 in south Cocoa Beach. It was like this all day except for about an hour during which we endured an intense electrical storm that chased everyone from the beach. Of course, we locals were back in the water by 5 PM when the sky went blue again and the tide ebbed. The shot above is of one of my friends and her son sharing a wave out back about midday. You can click on the photo for a larger image.

 

Does this make my butt look big?

Rocky shoreline in Satellite Beach at low tide. There are no rocks in Cocoa Beach but as one heads south, rocks are first encountered at Patrick Air Force Base and the rocky shore continues all the way to Indialantic.

Does this make my butt look big? Everyone knows there is only one correct answer to this question no matter who is doing the asking. There is another popular question that also has but one answer. That question is one that is posed to loan officers and mortgage brokers every day, “Do you foresee any issues with my getting a loan on this property?” Day one in loan officer school the class is asked this question and then instructed to shout in unison, “No, not at all.” over and over until the phrase is firmly imprinted on their brains. Then, when “the question” is posed by an actual borrower, the neuro lingual programming takes over without any conscious thought and “the answer” comes forth confidently. Doesn’t matter that the Florida condo that the borrower is asking about is 1800 miles away from the lender’s office or that the last Florida condo loan that the loan officer did was in 2006. “We can do it” he says with a confident smile. Right. He can do it until he can’t and that usually doesn’t becomes evident until well down the road towards closing.

All borrowers who are buying a Florida condo would be well advised to talk to a lender in the market in which they are purchasing. There are issues with Florida condo loans that lenders will not encounter anywhere else. A great credit score and previous relationship with a distant lender might not be enough when the hurdles to closing start appearing. A good local lender who is active in our market will have knowledge about Florida-specific loan issues and will likely have encountered many of the sure-to-happen problems with previous loans. That knowledge allows him to be proactive rather than reactive in addressing these issues. Anticipating and working to solve an issue before it presents itself can be the difference in making a closing date or not.

Disclaimer: I’m not saying out-of-area lenders can’t close deals here. It happens all the time, but, from plenty of personal experience, I can say without hesitation that the odds of having problems are increased when the lender is not local. Just don’t expect a loan officer to admit that his performance out of state may be compromised by lack of local experience. Remember the NLP “answer” from class. I can close deals and represent buyers anywhere in the state of Florida but I don’t venture outside my market because I can’t do the best possible job for my client in a market I don’t know. Greed and false confidence encourages many realtors and lenders to venture out onto the thin ice, often to their client’s detriment. Be skeptical when yours fearlessly claims proficiency in an unknown market.

/cue theme song (everyone sing along)__ “Knowledge is power…”

“Education is when you read the fine print. Experience is what you get if you don’t.”_____Pete Seeger

 

Hard Decisions

Another hot Mayo board. This one is a 6′2″ quad in Coke bottle tint.

I have talked to several distressed property owners over the course of the year who have found themselves in the undesirable position of owing substantially more on their mortgages than their properties are worth. Whether they bought at the peak or refinanced with cash out, they now struggle with their obligation to continue to pay off a loan that’s far more than the property would bring in a sale. Many feel an ethical obligation to continue to pay regardless of the impact on their personal finances. Even some of those not so ethically encumbered continue to pay for fear of ruining their credit or even shame among their peers should they decide to walk away. Those who find themselves in this position have three basic choices; continue to pay, pursue a short sale or simply walk away. Without taking any position on the ethics or morality of choices two or three, I will point the reader towards a very interesting discussion of the subject at Mish’s blog. Excerpt below.

“Mortgages are not ethical documents, they are legal contracts. The typical residential mortgage for an owner-occupied home gives the borrower two options: pay on time and in full, and keep paper title to the house, and full entitlements to any appreciation upon its later sale after the mortgage is satisfied; or, stop making payments, and hand the keys back to the lender. Morality and ethics don’t even enter the equation. Either option is perfectly legal for the borrower, and the only criteria should be business-based. All the ethics you need are contained within the four corners of the pages of the mortgage contract.”

“It doesn’t matter which side of the fence you get off on sometimes. What matters most is getting off. You cannot make progress without making decisions.”_________Jim Rohn

 

Eat em up, Cocoa Beach

It’s official. The Cafe Surfinista on N. 1st St. in Cocoa Beach lit up the open sign just a few minutes ago for the first time. It’s in the old Da Kine Diego’s building. I’ve been lucky enough to have a few sample meals this past week as the crew warmed up the kitchen in advance of opening. The menu is all healthy fare, heavy on sandwiches, wraps and salads. So far, I’ve had The Baja, which is a grilled sandwich with smoky grilled tofu, provolone, red onion, tomato, chipotle mayo, lettuce and carrots served with salsa and blue corn chips. Two big thumbs up. I’ve also had The Byron Bay which is a grilled wrap filled with hummus, avocado and assorted shredded veggies. It’s another winner and big enough to feed two normal humans. I think today I’ll go for one of the five salads offered, maybe the Hanelei which has baby greens, celery, mandarin orange, walnuts and goat cheese topped with slices of faux chicken. Weekends only they’ll be offering ceviche, pico de gallo, shrimp and homemade guacamole. The menu is rounded off with locally roasted coffee, fresh squeezed juice, wheat grass shots, Sambazon drinks, tea, beer and sangria. I predict that this place will be a huge hit.

Disclaimer: I have no interest in this place other than excitement in having a good new place to eat.

“If we’re not willing to settle for junk living, we certainly shouldn’t settle for junk food.”
________________Sally Edwards

 

Self-defeating games

Early morning on the Banana River in south Cocoa Beach, July 12, 2009.

I had an interesting email exchange this week with a frustrated buyer who was peeved at a seller’s response to his lowball offer. People, if you’re out there making low offers in hopes of stealing something, you had better be prepared for rejection, sometimes angry rejection. It doesn’t matter whether you think a property is over-priced or not, an offer 30% or more below asking price is not likely to elicit a warm note from the seller thanking you for being so kind as to offer cash. Speaking of over-priced, it will increase your chances of success if you actually have a grasp of what price would be a good deal on a particular property and start your offers within the bottom of the range of what you know to be a “deal”. Seeking advice from friends and neighbors who may know nothing about the market in which you’re offering is not market research. You should be aware of recent comparable sales, pending contracts, competition and condo association issues so that you can make an informed decision about your offer price. Additionally, a cover letter with justifications for your offer will sometimes make the difference between angry rejection and consideration. If you can’t find comps to support your offer, some commentary on likely market direction, seasonality of sales, unclosed short sales, assumption of the seller’s risk and so on will increase your offer’s chances of actually being considered. Having said that, even well-researched offers may sometimes be perceived as insulting by an emotional or unrealistic seller. When that happens, don’t take it personally. Deal with it and move on.

The buyer I mentioned above began his process with a verbal offer slightly above half the asking price. When rejected he made a higher offer in writing. No wonder that the seller had a burr under his saddle by the time he actually received a real written offer. Even with a justifying cover letter, which was not included, the 2nd offer faced a steep mountain of resistance. Not a well thought out strategy. If you’re hoping to buy, resist the urge to float a trial verbal offer before actually offering in writing. If you’re selling, I would advise never to respond to a verbal offer with anything other than “put it in writing”.

My advice about knowing the market stands for sellers as much as for buyers. Knowing what your neighbor got for their home next door last year is not market knowledge. It’s history. If you don’t know the market right now, you may be insulted by an offer that is realistic and lose a sale while you cling to yesterday’s reality. Knowledge, people. It’s not just for kids anymore.

“No matter how low I set the bar for common sense, you manage to slither under it.”
__________Richard to Ali

 

Positive cash flow, does it exist?

I get tons of calls and emails from people looking for a “deal” on a beach property that will generate positive cash flow and offer a get-away spot for occasional trips to Cocoa Beach or Cape Canaveral. There is a pretty narrow set of requirements for realization of positive cash flow. Let’s do some simplified math to help us narrow our search. Say we’re looking for a condo in the $200,000 range. We’ll assume a 30% down payment (Fannie Mae requirements for 2nd home condos) on a 30 year mortgage at 5.5%. Our fixed monthly costs will be (estimates but close to reality);

mortgage______$794
property taxes__ 250
condo fees_____ 350
utilities________ 130
insurance_______ 70
TOTAL________$1594

That means on this condo the buyers will need to net $1594 per month after management for all 12 months of the year. Subtract a couple of months for personal use and the net bumps to $1913 a month neccesary to break even. Without even looking for examples I can tell you that there is not a single $200,000 condo anywhere on the beach that will bring $1913 per month rent year round even if it were possible to carve out 2 months for personal use and rent the other 10 months. Does this mean there are no cash-flow possibilities? No. If there were no mortgage in our example the numbers would slide into the relm of possibilty but we’re still faced with the impossible task of renting 10 months while carving out two months for our own use. In this case, with no mortgage, the only realistic possibilty is to not use the unit ourselves and have a long-term renter paying at least $800 per month, a very feasible scenario.

The biggest (but often invisible if you don’t ask) fly in the ointment for investors exploring condo investment is rental restrictions. I have written about this before. In a nutshell, Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral, unlike most Florida coastal communities, have very few condos that allow weekly rentals. Most here restrict rentals to at least one month and some have as much as a one year minimum rental. Even with a one month minimum, an owner is faced with the daunting task outside of the main snowbird season of January through April of finding tenants who want to rent for at least one month. Our summer and fall guests are primarily vacationers who are here for one or two weeks. That reduces the options to finding a long-term renter which kills the idea of occasional personal use of the unit. The obvious best solution to this dilema is a weekly rental unit.

Let’s explore the same scenario as above but with a weekly rental unit in the $200,000 range like Chateau, Ola Grande or Cape Winds. The units that are selling in this price range in these complexes are renting in the $600 to $900 per week range. It quickly becomes obvious that the no-mortgage scenario is only going to require about 50% occupancy to net enough after-management cash to break even. With no mortgage, positive cash flow is a very real possibility with halfway decent occupancy. Expect to pay more (20 to 40%) for good short-term rental management. Good long-term management can be had in the 10 to 12% range. If an owner is able to and does their own management the possible returns for weekly rentals become quite attractive. The other obvious plus of the weekly rental units is that owners can chop out a few weeks here and there for themselves without destroying the income stream.

For buyers who don’t want or need personal use of the unit, one other way to tilt the odds in their favor is to find a unit at a price far below the assumed $200,000 purchase price. In our first scenario, dropping the purchase price significantly assuming the same desirability of the unit, the numbers begin to shine a little brighter even with a mortgage and a long-term renter. There are some other tweaks that will change the numbers like condo fees and utilities but those differences aren’t big enough to change the tone of our hypothetical purchase.

As a potential condo buyer, your takeaways here are;

• All other things being close to equal, a well-managed weekly rental unit will always generate more income and offer greater flexibility for personal use.
• If you do stick with longer minimum rental buildings, don’t think that because January through April rents and demand are high that you’ll be able to find monthly renters the rest of the year. If you do, consider yourself lucky.
• Be realistic with your expectation. Only considering positive cash flow scenarios might mean never using your unit yourself or could have you looking at units you don’t like. The benefits of owning a condo that you use occasionally that is slightly negative on cash flow might make sense.
• Ask your buyer’s agent about rental restrictions. Not all of them will go out of their way to tell you why your dream of income/personal use won’t work in many of our complexes. Many of them have never stopped to even think about the implications of restrictions.
• And lastly, if you don’t have to have the income, you’ll probably enjoy your time here more in a longer-term building without all the transients. It’s all about what you want and need.

I merely took the energy it takes to pout and wrote some blues.
________Duke Ellington

 

Want to see something really scary?

This is the one month graph of 30 year fixed rate mortgages. The blastoff at the right end happened Wednesday this week.

Just for balance, here’s a happier graph for those who are holding Canadian Dollars. This is from March 2 through today. We’re at .91 US$ to the Loonie this morning, the highest level since last October.

Yang cannot exist by itself; it can exist only when it is supported by yin.
___________Shao Yong